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Will Trump 2.0 have a big impact on US HealthTech?

Exec Summary:

Trump 2.0 will potentially have a big impact on US HealthTech, mainly driven by support for Big Tech and AI in the fields of Diagnostics, Drug Discovery and Remote Patient Monitoring.

The intersection of artificial intelligence (AI) and big tech is poised to dramatically reshape US healthcare over the next five years. Here are some key areas of impact:

1. Personalised Medicine

AI-Driven Diagnostics: Advanced AI algorithms will analyse vast amounts of patient data, including genetic information, medical history, and lifestyle factors, to identify personalised treatment plans.
Predictive Analytics: AI will predict disease risk, enabling proactive interventions and early treatment.

2. Drug Discovery and Development

Accelerated Research: AI will significantly speed up the drug discovery process by analysing molecular structures, identifying potential drug targets, and simulating clinical trials.
Precision Therapeutics: AI-powered tools will help develop drugs tailored to specific patient populations, increasing efficacy and reducing side effects.

3. Remote Healthcare and Telemedicine

Virtual Consultations: AI-powered telemedicine platforms will enhance remote consultations, making healthcare more accessible, especially in rural areas.
Remote Patient Monitoring: Wearable devices and AI-driven analytics will enable continuous monitoring of patient health metrics, allowing for early intervention and improved care.

4. Administrative Efficiency

Automation of Tasks: AI-powered automation will streamline administrative tasks such as medical coding, billing, and claims processing, reducing costs and improving efficiency.
Enhanced Data Management: AI will help manage and analyse large volumes of healthcare data, improving decision-making and resource allocation.

5. Ethical Considerations and Regulatory Framework

Data Privacy and Security: Stricter regulations will be implemented to protect patient data and address privacy concerns.
AI Bias and Fairness: Efforts will be made to develop AI algorithms that are fair, unbiased, and avoid perpetuating healthcare disparities.
Ethical Guidelines: Clear ethical guidelines will be necessary to ensure the responsible use of AI in healthcare, addressing issues such as informed consent and algorithmic transparency.

These trends are likely to lead to significant changes in the US healthcare landscape, including improved patient outcomes, reduced healthcare costs, and increased access to care. However, challenges such as data privacy, cybersecurity, and ethical considerations will need to be addressed to fully realize the potential of these technologies.

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Big impact on Health Tech and Distribution - tariffs, drug pricing and payor mix

'Within Health Tech, there tends to be bipartisan support for making healthcare more efficient via technology, transparency and new payment modalities. Within distribution, drug utilization is more dependent on demographics and drug innovation than on specific policies.

That said, there are three areas where Trump 2.0 policies could have an outsized impact on our coverage: tariffs, drug pricing and payor mix.

1. Tariffs on China will have the most direct impact on distributors that manufacture private-label products in China or partner with original equipment manufacturers in China to do so. That said, we expect the effect to be minimal given the strengthening of supply chains post-pandemic to avoid being overindexed to one geography.

2. Two potential changes to the IRA — Medicare Part D benefit design changes and Medicare drug-price negotiations — could affect distributors. The IRA’s cap on out-of-pocket costs may encourage increased utilization of high-priced specialty drugs, which would be positive for distributors. On the subject of Medicare drug-price negotiations, lower list prices are generally negative for distributors, whose discounts are based off these prices.

3. Regarding payor mix, Republican administrations have traditionally been positive for Medicare Advantage and negative for Medicaid and Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges. Potential policy changes could encourage accelerated Medicare Advantage enrollment, while the granting of more state waivers to impose work requirements for Medicaid eligibility could further constraint Medicaid enrollment. Enhanced ACA exchange subsidies are expected to expire at the end of 2025; not extending them would slow enrollment in the exchanges.'

Source: Citi’s 2024 Global Healthcare Conference

https://www.citigroup.com/global/insights/citis-2024-global-healthcare-conference-key-debates

HealthTech policy under a second Trump administration is likely to be defined by deregulation, a focus on market-driven solutions, and an emphasis on innovation

'As we look toward the potential health tech policy landscape under a second term of a Trump administration, it’s clear that innovation, deregulation, and private-sector-led initiatives will continue to be central themes. During his first term, President Trump pushed for policies aimed at reducing regulatory burdens across industries, including healthcare. This approach, which promotes a free-market, business-friendly environment, is likely to persist as a core pillar of health tech policy. However, there are a number of evolving factors—such as cybersecurity risks, data privacy concerns, and the need for healthcare equity—that will shape the future of the industry.

One of the primary ways a second Trump administration could influence the health tech landscape is through continued deregulation of digital health products and services. In the first term, the administration worked to streamline FDA approval processes for medical devices, and it’s possible that this trend could extend to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning in diagnostics, and telemedicine. By easing regulatory barriers, the government could foster quicker innovation and bring new products to market faster, a stance that benefits both startups and established health tech companies looking to expand their reach.

In particular, digital health solutions like telemedicine could continue to see significant growth, especially in rural and underserved communities. During the COVID-19 pandemic, telehealth experienced an unprecedented surge in usage, and a second Trump term might see an effort to enshrine the policy changes that made this possible. This could include expanding reimbursement for telemedicine services and making regulatory changes that encourage its integration into mainstream healthcare.

However, while deregulation and innovation are important, cost containment will remain a critical issue. Despite the drive for innovation, healthcare in the U.S. remains prohibitively expensive for many, and digital health technologies will need to balance cutting-edge solutions with affordability. Itirra, for example, works with a diverse clientele to create custom tools that not only advance the capabilities of healthcare providers but also integrate cost-effective solutions into their business models. If a Trump administration pushes for more market-driven solutions, health tech companies that can demonstrate the ability to lower costs, improve efficiency, and enhance care quality will be in a strong position to thrive.

That said, the rising prominence of health data—especially as more tools are digitized—will raise privacy and security concerns. The Trump administration’s traditional stance on deregulation could be complicated by growing threats from cyberattacks and data breaches. As health tech companies scale up and more sensitive patient data is collected, robust cybersecurity measures will be critical. In this regard, Itirra’s, a Washington state based health tech lab with over a decade of experience in building secure, user-friendly health tech systems will be particularly valuable. The administration may prioritize partnerships between private companies and the federal government to address cybersecurity risks, ensuring that health data platforms and telemedicine networks are protected from malicious attacks. A focus on digital health security could result in increased investments in both technology and workforce development in cybersecurity.

Another area that could see more policy focus is the integration of health tech solutions with public healthcare programs like Medicare and Medicaid. While President Trump has historically advocated for reforms that reduce government intervention in healthcare, it’s likely that the administration will also explore ways to incorporate technology into these programs to improve efficiency and patient outcomes.

The Trump administration’s interest in privatization and market competition may lead to policies that encourage private companies like Itirra to partner with state or federal programs, offering tailored, tech-driven solutions for managing chronic conditions, reducing healthcare disparities, and improving patient engagement.

Lastly, the future of health tech policy will inevitably be shaped by the broader political climate, including the influence of Congress, state governments, and public health advocacy groups.

A Trump administration, in concert with Republican-controlled states, might push for policies that prioritize innovation and economic growth over regulation and oversight. However, public demand for healthcare reform—especially with respect to digital health equity and access—may push for more consumer protection regulations, especially in areas like data privacy and pricing transparency.

In conclusion, health tech policy under a second Trump administration is likely to be defined by deregulation, a focus on market-driven solutions, and an emphasis on innovation.'

Source: Itirra

https://itirra.com/blog/introducing-the-trusted-exchange-framework-and-common-agreement-tefca-2/

The Four Core Pillars of Trump Healthcare 2.0

'The new administration is inclined toward a transactional view of the U.S. health system. It does not envision transformational change; instead, it sees opportunity for the system to perform significantly better. Its policies, leadership appointments and actions will be predicated on these four pillars:

Access to the U.S. healthcare system is a right to be earned. Fundamentally, Trump Healthcare 2.0 builds on its moral conviction that there should be NO FREE LUNCHES whether it’s illegal immigrants or patients who use the health system without doing their part. Trump Healthcare 2.0 will advance mechanisms to enable self-care, increase personal responsibility, promote cheaper/better alternatives to traditional insurance and health delivery and challenge lawmakers to limit financial support to free-loaders. The fundamental notions of public health and community benefit will be revisited and restrictions enacted.

The status quo is not working. Change is needed. Polls show the majority of Americans are dissatisfied with the health system. Affordability is their major concern: escalating, inexplicable costs are forcing their employers to share more responsibility. Trump Healthcare 2.0 will implement changes that lower spending and costs for consumers and employers. They’ll leverage coalitions of working-class voters and businesses to enact policies that expose waste, fraud and abuse in the system and direct the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services to streamline its structure and prioritize cost-effectiveness (the HHS Strategic Plan for 2022-2026 is up for review).

Private solutions solve public problems better than government. Trump Healthcare 2.0 posits that government is broken including the federal and state agencies that control healthcare oversight and funding. Reducing regulatory barriers to consolidation and innovation and lessening risks for private investors whose ventures align with Trump Healthcare 2.0 priorities will be foci. Fundamentally, Trump Healthcare 2.0 believes the private sector is better able to address problems than government bureaucrats: key Trump Healthcare 2.0 leadership positions will be filled by successful private sector operators instead of re-cycled DC luminaries desiring attention.

Price transparency fuels competition and value. Trump Healthcare 1.0 mandated hospital price transparency via its 2019 Executive Order: Trump Healthcare 2.0 will expand the scope and usefulness of price transparency mandates in hospital, ancillary and outpatient services, physician services, insurance and others. It will facilitate accelerated use of Artificial Intelligence in decision-making by consumers, providers and payers. It will expand timely access to data on prices, direct costs, overhead, executive compensation, outcomes, user experiences and other elements of care management provided by hospitals, physicians and other providers. And it will move quickly to implement site neutral payments in the 119thTrump Healthcare 2.0 holds that providers, insurers and drug companies are not inclined to transparency despite strong support from elected officials and voters. They’ll advance these policy changes anticipating pushback from industry insiders. Trump Healthcare 2.0 believes price transparency in healthcare will produce transformational changes that enable more competition and lower costs.

Looking ahead:

The Trump 2.0 team’s immediate task is to assemble its Cabinet: that’s taken prior administrations 38 days on average to complete. In tandem, temporary fixes for CMS’ pending Physician Pay Cut and telehealth expansion will pass as Congress’ lame duck session begins this week.

Looking to 2025, the Trump Healthcare 2.0 team will focus initially on issues in Congress where Bipartisan support appears strong i.e. regulation of PBMs, implementation of site neutral payment policies, expansion of drugs subject to Inflation Reduction Act’s pricing limits and perhaps others. It will plan its legislative agenda coordinating with key committees (i.e. Senate HELP, House Ways and Means et al) and outside groups that share its predisposition. And it will use its political clout to build popular support for healthcare reforms that respond directly to consumer (voter) concern about affordability.

Trump Healthcare 2.0 will bring heightened transparency to the health system and be premised on pillars that are popular with working class voters. It will not be a duplicate of Trump Healthcare 1.0: it will be much more.

Source: The Keckley Report

https://paulkeckley.com/the-keckley-report/2024/11/11/the-four-core-pillars-of-trump-healthcare-2-0/

Will Trump 2.0 have a big impact on US HealthTech?